The Recession and Limits to Growth

From Slashdot | Linux In 2009 – Recession vs. GNU

Re:FOSS Will Gain Market Share (Score:5, Interesting)

by theguyfromsaturn (802938) on Friday January 02, @09:03PM (#26307839)

This recession will not last years because pundits say so. Unlike other recessions, this one was predicted decades ago. (have a look at the book “Limits to growth” and the neat time line for peak global industrial output peak. The timing match is quite scary actually). It is not a coincidence that the banking system collapsed on the heels of 140$ a barrel for oil. There is no other currency than energy. Without energy (including food to keep people going), there is no economic “activity”. Food production has peaked too, on a global scale. What will happen now, is that as soon as the economy starts moving again, demand of fuel will increase until we reach a level somewhat lower than the peak 85 million barrels a day or so, at which point, due the limited oil production, prices will skyrocket again, and a fragile economy will go right back into recession. The only way out, is reducing quickly energy consumption. And increasing alternatitve energy sources.. However, there is 150 years of infrastructure in oil, and even more in coal…. you can’t replace that in a couple of years. It takes decades during which global population will continue to grow, and food production decrease (at an accelerated rate with the decreased availability of natural gas and gasoline). It’s not the pundits that predict a long recession. It’s mother nature.

Re:FOSS Will Gain Market Share (Score:5, Interesting)

by linhares (1241614) <linhares@club o f r o m e.org.br> on Friday January 02, @11:30PM (#26308889)
Homepage

Beautiful. I wish I had mod points

HERE ARE SOME SLIDES FROM LIMITS TO GROWTH [slideshare.net] that I’ve uploaded. They concern only scenario#2, which is but one of the scenarios developed in the model (and the one I think is turning out eerily close to reality).

Slides 11 and 12 are particular sinister to me.

Obviously, I’m placing them here totally out of context, but when you read the book you see that they do make sense, and how these global variables feedback into each other. (Note. Other slides loosely related)

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